A new economic analysis suggests that elderly Americans could face an average reduction of $2,152 in annual Social Security benefits by 2034 as a direct result of the economic fallout from the Trump administration's anti-immigration policies. Authored by researchers at Economic Insights and Research Consulting and commissioned by America's Voice, the report warns that the projected 8.6% reduction in retirement payments will persist every year thereafter if current immigration enforcement and mass deportation efforts continue.
Researchers and advocates point out that the administration's claims regarding the economic benefits of its policies run contrary to data showing widespread disruption across key sectors. The sudden exodus of 1.2 million foreign-born workers over the past two years has contributed to higher domestic food prices, a decline in housing permits, and job losses even for native-born Americans whose employment depends on a stable supply of immigrant labor.
The agricultural sector, which relies heavily on foreign-born and undocumented workers, has experienced severe labor shortages resulting in unharvested produce rotting in fields. According to the report, food products dependent on immigrant labor have seen much steeper price increases since the administration took office compared to general grocery prices. For instance, fresh whole milk prices rose by 5.7%, canned vegetables by 6.3%, and apples by 7.2% over a 19-month period, reversing a prior trend of slower inflation for these goods.
The construction industry has faced similar strains, with foreign-born workers previously filling nearly a third of all jobs in the sector. States more reliant on immigrant labor witnessed a 10.9% surge in the cost of new single-family homes in 2026 compared to late 2024, pushing average building values up from $305,752 to $338,752. Nationwide, single-family housing permits fell by 10.6% following the policy shifts, creating secondary job losses for native-born specialty tradespeople like electricians and plumbers who miss out when foundational construction work stalls.
Other industries experiencing labor shortages and soaring operational costs include healthcare services, nursing homes, landscaping, and groundskeeping. By September 2025, native-born workers had reportedly lost tens of thousands of jobs due to immigration policy changes, while overall job growth slowed significantly and the broader labor force shrank by nearly a million people.
Furthermore, the federal government faces the risk of losing a substantial portion of the $26 billion in annual payroll taxes contributed by unauthorized immigrants who help sustain the Social Security trust fund without being eligible to draw benefits themselves. With lower net immigration threatening the financial stability of the retirement system, trustees including the treasury secretary, health and human services secretary, labor secretary, and social security commissioner have warned of worsening fiscal health, which researchers calculate will translate directly into reduced entitlements for American seniors.