The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast rain and thunderstorms across several parts of India on Saturday, October 10, as the southwest monsoon continues to retreat from the country. Kerala and Tamil Nadu are likely to see heavy rainfall at isolated places, while Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh may experience thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds.
Meanwhile, the monsoon withdrawal process is expected to advance over more parts of eastern India, the northern peninsula and northeastern India over the next few days. Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh are likely to experience isolated thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds reaching 40-50 kmph on October 10. Punjab, Uttarakhand and Rajasthan may also see thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph at isolated places.
Rainfall is likely at isolated to scattered places across Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, and parts of Rajasthan. Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and adjoining areas are expected to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, according to the IMD forecast. This weather activity comes as a weather system over north Pakistan and its neighbourhood, identified by the IMD as a Western Disturbance, persists, which can influence weather over northwestern India and contribute to rain and thunderstorms.
In southern India, Kerala and Mahe, along with Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, are likely to receive heavy rainfall at isolated places on October 10. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 40-50 kmph are also expected at isolated places in these regions and Lakshadweep. Parts of Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha may experience thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds reaching 30-40 kmph.
Rainfall is also likely across parts of eastern India, including Bihar, West Bengal and Sikkim, while northeastern states may see scattered showers and thunderstorms. The southwest monsoon withdrawal line currently stretches from parts of northeastern India through Supaul, Ranchi, Sundargarh, Bargarh, Bijapur, Hyderabad, Belagavi and Panjim to the Arabian Sea.
The IMD said conditions are becoming favourable for the monsoon to withdraw from more areas over the next three to four days. However, the retreat does not mean rainfall will stop everywhere, as weather systems can continue to trigger showers and thunderstorms. Another system may also influence the coming days, as an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Thailand and nearby areas is expected to move into the Andaman Sea around October 11, potentially forming a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal around October 13.