BEIJING—Vivian Wei is shutting down her business. After more than a decade operating as a headhunter, work has effectively dried up. Major Chinese technology companies that once retained Wei to recruit engineers by the hundreds are instead laying off staff. Economic uncertainty is weighing heavily on individuals across China, even those fortunate enough to maintain jobs and steady incomes.
Wei estimates that her household income has halved over the last few years. Recently, she and her husband have trimmed nonessential spending to preserve capital, shifting from premium skincare products to less expensive domestic brands. Several of her neighbors have lost traditional positions and transitioned to driving for DiDi, the nation's primary ride-hailing network. Wei's primary anxiety centers on whether her 12-year-old son will secure viable employment when he reaches adulthood.
Financial concerns are scaling upward throughout the country. A multiyear property slump shows no sign of abating, secure employment is increasingly scarce for younger demographics, and citizens are hoarding cash in anticipation of further downturns. Consequently, China is heavily reliant on foreign markets for growth, a dynamic that heightens international trade tensions. Exports surged 36% in September, placing the country on pace to eclipse last year's record $1.2 trillion trade surplus on the back of strong demand for electric vehicles and heavy machinery.
External trade has powered a significant share of China's economic expansion this year. Official figures show gross domestic product expanded 4.5% in the third quarter compared to the same period in the previous year, matching Beijing's annual target range of 4.5% to 5% growth. However, while advanced industries like artificial intelligence and robotics make rapid strides, the broader domestic marketplace languishes.
Fixed-asset investment tracking spending on infrastructure, factories, and residential housing dropped 7.2% during the first three quarters of the year, dragged down by a 21% collapse in property investment alone. Consumer retail sales remain subdued, rising just 1.1% in September. Vendors at local wholesale markets report dwindling profit margins, slashed inventories, and sliding daily revenues as shoppers tighten their belts and avoid discretionary purchases.
Although official urban unemployment figures hover near 5%, analysts suggest the true state of the labor market is obscured by the massive expansion of the gig economy. Estimates indicate that flexible employment without permanent contracts will climb to 320 million workers, representing over 40% of the urban workforce. Even workers with secure salaries have adopted defensive financial habits, trading down on daily expenses and channeling funds into savings or insurance products due to prevailing uncertainty.
Economists have repeatedly called on Beijing to enact structural reforms that stimulate household consumption and curb the economy's heavy reliance on foreign trade. While authorities have introduced targeted measures like mortgage assistance and appliance replacement subsidies, these steps have fallen short of the sweeping overhauls many experts view as essential to restoring long-term domestic balance.