With vote tallies continuing to trickle in across Israel, veteran Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has performed better than many initial predictions suggested, with his Likud party emerging as the largest single faction. However, his existing alliance of ultra-nationalist and ultra-Orthodox religious parties appears to fall just short of securing a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat parliament. Political analysts caution that these early tallies remain subject to change because the initial count was heavily skewed toward regions known for strong right-wing support.
The high-stakes election followed a dramatic voter turnout exceeding 77 percent amid a deeply fragmented political landscape. Indications suggest that Netanyahu's main rival, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, would likewise struggle to command a parliamentary majority without the involvement of parties representing Israel's Arab minority. Partial results indicate that these Arab-led factions have either maintained or expanded upon their previous record number of seats.
Throughout the campaign, most Jewish opposition parties pledged to avoid working with Arab-majority lists, citing a lack of shared values. Yet, these same parties could ultimately emerge as kingmakers if other political figures are willing to forge alliances with them. Arab Israelis, who frequently identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel and comprise one-fifth of the nation's population, appeared to vote in record numbers, viewing the election as a crucial opportunity to challenge an increasingly right-wing administration.
A significant factor in the ongoing uncertainty is the large volume of uncounted absentee ballots, largely representing the votes of Israeli soldiers. Consequently, a clearer picture of the final electoral outcome is not expected for another day or two. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot addressed their supporters overnight, each expressing confidence and vowing to lead the next administration.
Speaking to celebrating supporters, Netanyahu emphasized that the right-wing bloc holds a clear and decisive majority among the Jewish public and advocates of the state, asserting the necessity of establishing a stable, national, right-wing government. Meanwhile, Eisenkot told members of his party that the public has chosen change and rejected the continuation of Netanyahu's leadership, pledging to work rapidly with partners to form a stable, centrist Zionist government that can help heal societal divisions.
The election serves as a referendum not only on Netanyahu's leadership—as he faces an ongoing corruption trial which he denies—but also on the broader ideological trajectory of the nation. Over the past four years, the current coalition has pursued a hardline religious and nationalist agenda, sparking massive domestic protests prior to the unprecedented Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, which subsequently ignited wider regional conflicts.
Despite the turbulent events of recent years, voting patterns have remained remarkably consistent, with the relative weight of the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu camps holding steady. Political maneuvering has already begun behind the scenes as parties seek potential defectors or explore minority government options, a complex process that could extend over weeks or months.
A central question moving forward is whether the main opposition bloc is prepared to break historical taboos by negotiating political deals with Arab factions. While right-wing figures like Avigdor Lieberman have strongly opposed relying on Arab support, leaders such as Ra'am chief Mansour Abbas have expressed a willingness to join a future governing coalition, arguing that political rhetoric often softens once elections conclude. Meanwhile, Netanyahu and his allies have actively sought to delegitimize Arab parties, portraying them as an internal threat.
Once final results are officially presented next week, Israel's ceremonial president, Isaac Herzog, will consult with the leaders of all elected parties before tasking the candidate deemed most capable of assembling a stable governing coalition with the responsibility of forming the next administration.