Senior Iranian officials believe the US is planning either further military strikes or an ever-tightening economic stranglehold that will push Tehran into retaliatory action.The assessment comes from Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran’s chief negotiator in talks with the US, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.Mohammadi said on his Telegram channel that the Americans had proposed a timeframe of about two weeks after which Donald Trump would make a decision on military action. Mohammadi, who is regarded as a reliable indicator of Ghalibaf’s thinking, cast doubt on the US president’s claim that the military option was off the table.
He claimed Washington was preparing for a limited strike and Iran was already preparing a response.If the US sanctions continued, he said, a comprehensive pre-emptive war would be needed “to increase the cost of sanctions for the enemy”.Mohammadi described the US response to Iran’s latest proposals on reopening the strait of Hormuz as “not only unsatisfactory but completely deceptive”. “They do not want to release the frozen funds,” he said. “They do not want to lift the sanctions and they do not want to stop the war in Lebanon.”He also disclosed that Iran had rejected a request from the US vice-president, JD Vance, for a direct meeting with its negotiators before giving a response to Tehran’s conditions for lifting the siege on the strait.For now, Trump has settled on a strategy of suffocating Iran through economic pressure and tightening the blockade on its oil exports while facilitating those of other Gulf states through Hormuz.A tanker burns off Oman in the strait of Hormuz on Sunday, apparently after an attack by Iranian forces trying to stop oil shipments. Photograph: Social media/ReutersMohammadi’s assessments suggest some senior Iranians fear Washington’s strategy might work by destabilising the country.
The thinking goes that economic turmoil might spark street protests, potentially around the anniversary of nationwide demonstrations that began in late December last year.On this basis, the Iranian leadership might conclude that the status quo – a “no peace, no war” impasse – was not sustainable and pre-emptive action was required.Despite Iranian claims that their blockade of the strait is working, there is concern that Brent crude is at a relatively low $93 a barrel, while Saudi oil production is near prewar levels of 9.3m barrels a day. In an attempt to close any loopholes, Iran said it bombed a US radar post on the Omani island of Didamar three days ago.In another development, Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s national security council, said he had told Russia that Iran was not prepared for even a particle of its highly enriched stockpile of uranium to leave the country, saying it might be needed for planned nuclear-powered submarines.A third senior official, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, warned Europe that any complicity in the US blockade would be “an act of war that will be etched in the nation’s historical memory”.Tehran has been increasingly clear that US bases in Europe will be targeted if fighting resumes.
Rezaei said: “If American planes take off from a distant military base and come to this country to bomb Iran, we will also target that base. We are announcing this now so they have no excuse tomorrow.”Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, gave the impression this week that the policy of economic strangulation was sufficient and described Iran’s demands as unrealistic.
However, Trump is under pressure to resolve the crisis before the Democrats take charge of Congress on 3 January.A Reuters Ipsos poll in the US shows 71% of Americans want Congress to pass legislation to end the war in Iran. The overwhelming message from the midterm elections was that the conflict was highly unpopular but the Democrats do not have a strategy to end it and open up the strait of Hormuz.
This risks leaving the political initiative with the White House, and an increasingly hardline Iranian leadership.