Andy Burnham hit the nail on the (well)head in his first fortnight as prime minister when he said: âThe question isnât whether Britain will still be using oil and gas, the question is where does it come from.âIt was a nod towards several awkward energy facts. First, oil and gas provided 75% of the UKâs energy in 2025, government data shows.
Second, even with the rollout of domestic renewables for generating electricity, about 43% of overall energy was imported last year.Third, all credible paths to net zero emissions by 2050 involve using a lot of oil and gas on the way because weâre still in the foothills of electrification. Less than 2% of UK households have heat pumps, according to the lobby group Electrify Britain.While sales of EVs are accelerating, just under 95% of vehicles on the road run on petrol and diesel.
Meanwhile, hydrogen and biomethane have barely taken off as alternatives to gas for those industrial processes that require higher temperatures than electricity can achieve â tricky for a government pursuing âreindustrialisationâ.Fourth â and this one must alarm Downing Street â the global energy market has simply become less reliable. The strait of Hormuz can close overnight.
The US president can threaten to ban diesel exports. Russian ships prowl the North Sea.
Even the nice Norwegians, with an eye on their own energy consumers, scrapped a planned electricity cable to Scotland in 2023.It is no longer a world of always-available âjust in timeâ supply. Thinking has shifted to âjust in caseâ scenario-planning.
And a truly scary scenario would be disruption to the 725-mile Langeled pipeline that is the primary route for gas supplies from Norway, 40% of the UKâs consumption last year. The pipeline is a security vulnerability if ever there was one (if you doubt it, watch Sky Newsâ recent report).Now we have the start of an answer to Burnhamâs âwhere should it come from?â question.
The Jackdaw gasfield, 150 miles east of Aberdeen, has finally been approved to produce in time for winter. About time, too.All the arguments from pragmatism were in the fieldâs favour.
As this column has said in the past, less North Sea gas would inevitably mean more imported liquefied natural gas, with the extra carbon emissions created by chilling the fuel to -160C for shipment and then âregasifyingâ it at the other end.Such cargos were 20% of UK gas imports last year, mostly from the US. It already feels absurd that the 24m UK households with a gas boiler burn any gas at all from the shale fields of Texas and Pennsylvania.
Why increase the exposure if lower-polluting supplies are available off Aberdeen?More UK North Sea gas production wonât lower the price for consumers much, if at all. But that was never the argument.
It was always about tax receipts, jobs, the national balance of payments, relative emissions and the security that comes with having domestic volumes piped straight into the national gas network.Jackdaw is not a gamechanger â it will be 6% of UK North Sea gas production at peak â but itâs definitely worth having while the UK is still using gas, which will be at least as long the fieldâs 11-year life. The next question is whether other âtie-backâ gasfields in already-explored areas, such as Tornado, west of the Shetlands, will follow.
The line in the governmentâs announcement about âasking the regulator to consider urgent cases that could benefit from similar measures nowâ suggests so.Miatta Fahnbulleh insists that commitment to net zero by 2050 is intact. Photograph: Wiktor Szymanowicz/ShutterstockRosebank, also near the Shetlands, is a trickier political proposition because itâs mostly oil, which is more polluting, and will be producing for longer.
But the arguments arenât wholly different. The common elements are still jobs, investment, taxes and the governmentâs ability to impose higher environmental standards during the production stage.Meanwhile, the âitâs all exportedâ objection to Rosebank misses the fact that the UK oil industry operates within a European network.
If the UK had more than four refineries (compared with nine at the turn of the century), a chunk of Rosebankâs output might be processed at home. As it is, some â perhaps the majority â will come back to the UK as petrol, diesel and jet fuel once itâs been refined in Rotterdam or elsewhere in north-west Europe.Take a step back and the North Sea debate is really about how much oil and gas it is sensible for the UK to produce itself on the way to net zero.
On the current trajectory, only about a third of consumption will come from domestic sources on a net basis. Even offshore lobbyists reckon a boost to North Sea production would only get the ratio up to about a half, albeit the figure would obviously increase if consumption of fossil fuels can be made to fall faster.
Nobody is talking about the UK becoming a net exporter again.Commitment to net zero by 2050 is intact, the energy secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh, insisted. We wait to see what the new âenergy wealth fundâ, which will reinvest oil and gas revenues into renewable and low-carbon projects, means in practice.
But the financial logic is sound: recycle the receipts from the old system to quicken the transition. Electrification, enabling consumers to make use of lower-carbon energy, is still the main story.The bizarreness in the governmentâs previous approach was that, even as it proclaimed the virtues of âclean homegrown energyâ such as wind, solar and nuclear, it pursued an approach that maximised imports when it came to oil and gas.
Many, including the general secretary of the GMB union, Gary Smith, pointed out the flaw: it was hard for the UK to claim real climate leadership if it was simply off-shoring emissions.In a small way, Jackdaw addresses the UKâs extreme reliance on imports. It is a step towards a joined-up commonsense approach to energy security.
The real transition test remains the pace at which the UK stops using fossil fuels.

